The AUKUS submarines are years from hitting the water but have already claimed their first victim.
The relationship between the Labor government and the party's elder statesman Paul Keating has been sunk. In truth, it was already listing badly over this issue, but now it's irrevocably ruptured.
Any pretence of playing nice has gone. Even basic respect now appears to be sitting at the bottom of the sea.
The former prime minister was critical of Labor in opposition for promptly backing the AUKUS idea when it was conceived by the Morrison government. That criticism turned into an extraordinary spray at the National Press Club on Wednesday, after the final details of the submarine plan were unveiled.
The torpedoes were firing in nearly all directions.
Former prime minister Paul Keating has taken aim at Australia's AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine deal with the United States and the United Kingdom, calling it the "worst international decision" by a Labor government since conscription in World War I.
Joe Biden was described as a president who "can hardly put three coherent sentences together". Australian security agencies were "ning-nongs" and "dopes". Journalists were called even worse.
Few of them would be too troubled by the name-calling. It's Paul Keating after all.
But for the most senior members of the Government — Anthony Albanese, Richard Marles and Penny Wong — it's not so easy to brush this off. For them, being labelled "seriously unwise ministers" who had just made "the worst international decision" by a Labor government in 100 years would have stung.
A young Penny Wong was inspired to pursue a political career by Paul Keating. She's spoken many times of the impact the former prime minister had on her views about Australia's role in the region.
Yesterday, Keating belittled her work as foreign minister as meaningless. "Running around the Pacific islands with a lei around your neck handing out money, which is what Penny does, is not foreign policy," he declared. "The Albanese Government does not employ a foreign policy."
Anthony Albanese, Keating argued, was played by his British and American counterparts this week. "At the Kabuki show in San Diego, there's three leaders standing there. Only one is paying. Our bloke, Albo."
Notably, there was only one target Keating seemed unwilling to touch: China.
The trade sanctions imposed against Australia were played down as mere "commercial reactions".
The prolific cyber-attacks were dismissed as the normal behaviour of a big power. So too, the claiming of disputed territory in the South China Sea.
China is embarking on a diplomatic mission to torpedo Australia's nuclear submarine program while ramping up its own arsenal, but the move appears to be driven by genuine fear over the real agenda behind AUKUS, writes Bill Birtles.
Keating wouldn't even accept criticism of Beijing for what a United Nations report has described as "serious human rights violations" against its minority Uyghur population. "That's disputed," he said.
Nor did the former PM think anyone should be troubled by China's rapid military build-up, which includes a 7.2-per-cent increase in defence spending this year to an annual budget of around $335 billion (compared to Australia's plan to spend up to $386 billion on submarines over 30 years).
"What China is doing is not provocation," Keating argued. "They're a major state."
In Paul Keating's view, none of China's behaviour on trade, cyber warfare, foreign interference, exerting its power in disputed waters, President Xi Jinping's pledge to "reunify" Taiwan or his accelerating military expansion amounts to a threat to Australia.
This behaviour, often described as China's "grey zone" warfare, is entirely unsurprising and untroubling, in Keating's black-and-white world view.
The only "threat" we should worry about is the utterly far-fetched prospect of Chinese troops landing on Australian soil. "That is, they bring an armada of troop ships with a massive army to occupy us," he said, pointing out "this is not possible for the Chinese to do".
Anything short of Chinese troop ships landing in Australia, in other words, should not be considered a threat.
This goes to the heart of the strategic shift under AUKUS. Australian defence policy has previously centred around defending Australia. Under AUKUS, defence policy is shifting to defending sea lanes far to the north and playing a role in "securing the region".
As Defence Minister Richard Marles puts it, Australia needs to "project" into the region with "impact".
Keating is far from alone in criticising this fundamental strategic shift. Plenty of other analysts wonder why Australia needs the capability to have nuclear-powered submarines lurking for months at a time in the South China Sea, and worry we'll now be far more beholden to the United States.
The huge cost of nuclear submarines means the capabilities of our air force or army may be impacted in the coming decades. In addition, how new detection technology will impact the effectiveness of these expensive subs in the years ahead is yet to be explained by the government.
But the bipartisan view of today's leaders is that this is a fundamentally important shift. China's "grey zone" warfare must be taken seriously. It can't be ignored.
Marles says: "Our new strategic circumstances demand that we walk down this new path." This new capability "will make our nation more safe — that's what people need to understand". He does not accept Keating's benign view of what he calls "the single biggest conventional military build-up anywhere in the world since the Second World War".
Nor does Kim Beazley, who served as defence minister in the Hawke Government, Labor leader for nearly six years and Ambassador to Washington. He rejects Keating's rubbishing of the AUKUS deal and wonders why it's OK for China to build nuclear submarines "by the bushel", but not Australia.
"I don't think anyone would see that as a fair or sensible position," Beazley told the ABC's Afternoon Briefing.
Ultimately, the Keating criticism won't stop AUKUS. He has railed against Labor's position on China for years to little effect. There have been no cracks in the caucus and little evidence of a revolt amongst party members, despite Keating's claims that most rank-and-file ALP members agree with him.
But the sharp critique will still sting those who once idolised the Labor luminary.
It may also force the Government to shed its cautious talk of "deteriorating regional security" and explicitly spell out the reason for these nuclear submarines. China.
David Speers is the host of Insiders, which airs on ABC TV at 9am on Sunday or on iview.
Posted Wed 15 Mar 2023 at 6:00pm Wednesday 15 Mar 2023 at 6:00pm Wed 15 Mar 2023 at 6:00pm , updated Wed 15 Mar 2023 at 6:08pm Wednesday 15 Mar 2023 at 6:08pm Wed 15 Mar 2023 at 6:08pm
